Closely examining past data and current conditions, economists have the daunting task to forecast the future direction of the interest rates, inflation, consumer behavior and the growth of goods and services. One notable economist of the last several years is Paul Kasriel, the Director of Economic Research at Northern Trust in Chicago. In 2006 he received the Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005.
In their June 2007 "U.S. Economic & Interest Rate Outlook," Kasriel and associate Asha Bangalore opine that the housing recession will spread to other parts of the economy, most notably the consumer sector. They believe that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is currently too optimistic about second-half GDP growth and too pessimistic about inflation. Time will tell if their forecast is on target. For details, click here: