Speculating on the End Game for This Cycle

From The Capital Spectator:

Interest rates are the hot topic once more. The pressing question: when will the Fed hike rates? Inflation chatter has been in a bull market of late, and the bond market is again focused on the risks. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is roughly 4.2% as we write, up from March 17's 3.3%, which wasn't far above the generational low of 3.07% set back in June 2003. The run-up in yields should surprise no one in a world where the prices of commodities -- food and energy in particular -- have surged. But the fixed-income set, for all its current fears, hasn't been a reliable and steady barometer of pricing worries. That's not entirely odd, since bond prices (and their yields) are subject to two key drivers that are often in conflict, and the influence of one or the other waxes and wanes. (Click here to continue reading this post.)