Evergreen Investments Chief Market Analyst, John K. Lynch, provides us with his insight on recent market rallies and the sustainability of a possible bull market.
"The equity market, as defined by the S&P 500 Index, has broken through the top end of our projected 'sustainable' trading range (650-850) originally highlighted in our March 3rd, 2009 issue of Market Update. Not surprisingly, the calls are coming in to see whether or not our short-term outlook has changed. To be sure, the market’s 'technicals' have looked very strong of late, with the S&P 500 having managed to move through, and hold above, its 50-day moving average.
As investors, we are obviously pleased with the market’s solid technical rebound from the recent lows. These gains have also been aided by 'less-bad' economic data on jobless claims, consumer confidence and manufacturing activity. Yet it is corporate profitability that has us most concerned."
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