Stock Performance During Mild Deflation

According to a recent study by The Leuthold Group, stocks have performed strongly -- up an average of 18.2% annually -- when the CPI was flat to down 2.49% on a year-over-year basis.  The Leuthold study cross-referenced consumer prices with stock market performance on a quarterly basis going back to 1926.  

According to Andy Engel, a senior research analyst at Leuthold, the 34 periods with mild deflation tended to exhibit strong stock market performance because of the market's anticipation of improving economic fundamentals. Twenty-one of the 34 mild deflationary periods occurred during the 1920s and 1930s.  However, when deflation was more severe, stocks lost an average of 6.6% in the following 12-month periods.  

Click here for a summary of the Leuthold study from 

Scott Middleton