ICON's Interest Rate Outlook is for the "Old Normal"
Contrary to a popular belief that interest rates are destined to rise significantly, ICON believes we may be re-entering the “old normal” where the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield remains between 2%-4% for an extended period of time.
• Short term rates will remain low into 2017 or 2018 and maybe longer
• GDP growth will fluctuate around 2% +/- 1% for the next 5 years
• Inflation will generally remain at 2% or lower for the next 5+ years
• Real returns on U.S.Treasury 10-year yield will average 1%-2%
• The U.S.Treasury 10-Year Note yield will likely fluctuate between 2%-4% for the foreseeable future