Posts in Economics
Trump has a 75% Chance of Winning the Trade War

The United States and China have a trade war that could escalate if the United States puts more tariffs on import goods from China. “However, the U.S. could still win, but the victory may take a longer period of time to achieve and it may be more painful, economically and politically”. Although it may seem that the U.S. has the advantage of winning, China has yet to show signs of retreat despite the recent meltdown of its stock market. Click here to learn more.

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Productivity, Inflation and the Path of Rates

"Last week, in line with expectations, the Federal Reserve hiked rates, freed itself from its "low-for-longer" forward guidance and lifted its "dot plot" a little higher. The European Central Bank also followed the script, confirming that it would end its quantitative easing purchases by the end of the year, subject to data supporting its inflation outlook - which it revised upwards. It is a good time to ask why markets have become so tentative in their inflation expectations, and what that implies about the length of this business cycle and the path of rates." Click here to learn more.

Source: Neuberger Berman

Best Practices for 403(b) Plans

"The primary problem is that 403(b) investment costs are extremely high as compared to the 401(k) market, where the plan sponsor typically uses one provider for the plan." Click here to learn more about the best practices for 403(b) Plans.

Source: International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans

Economics, FYIRichard M. Todd
Politics Matter - Sometimes

Elections, terrorist attacks and wars can send stock, bond and other markets into violent spasms. Some of these geo-political events tend to have relatively inconsequential and short-term impacts on economies and financial markets. However, other events can have significant medium- to long-term ramifications. “Politics Matters – Sometimes” explores how long-term investors can discern which events tend to have lasting and long-term impacts on the markets. Click here to read more.

Source: CFA Institute

Quote for the Week: Economics

"The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists."

-- Joan Robinson, Cambridge University     

EconomicsScott Middleton
PIMCO: Expect Rising Inflation, Weak Investment Returns

Bill Gross, managing director of bond powerhouse PIMCO, recently opined that investors should expect governments in almost all developed economies to return to the "magic potion" of inflating their way out of massive levels of debt. Known for his nearly constant disdain for equity investing, Gross also noted that future bond returns are likely to be anchored by their current low yields.  

Click here for Bill Gross' August commentary.