For nearly 10 years the U.S. economy has been in a prolonged period of growth without a recession. Among the 12 economic expansions since World War II, the current one, which started in mid-year 2009, is the second-longest in duration at 117 months (as of March 2019). Only the economic expansion in the 1990s was longer. At this stage, it would be reasonable for investors to ask: "Is the U.S. overdue for a recession and a bear market?" Click here to keep reading.
“By the end of the summer I became convinced that the United States equity market was setting itself up for a powerful post mid-term election rally. The economic fundamentals were strong: unemployment was at a 40-year low and real growth was better than 3%; the Federal Reserve was raising rates, but that was only a noble attempt to creep back to normal levels for the later stages of a business cycle. The yield curve was likely to remain positive, inventories were not excessive and leading indicators were still rising.” Click here to continue reading.
“The ability of the Treasury yield curve to predict future recessions has recently received a great deal of public attention. An inversion of the yield curve—when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates—has been a reliable predictor of recessions”. Click here to keep reading
Source: FRBSF Economic Letter
The top three takeaways in Innovest's February Market Commentary are:
1. Turbulent month for stocks
2. S&P 500 cools down
3. New Fed chair Powell sees strengthening U.S. economy
Click here to read the full commentary.
The Innovest August Market Commentary covers three main topics this month:
1. The impact of Hurricane Harvey
2. The Debt Ceiling
3. Home Values versus Inflation
Click here to read the Market Commentary.