Posts in Market Commentary
Curve Ball: Is the Yield Curve Signaling the End of the Expansion and the Bull Market?

For nearly 10 years the U.S. economy has been in a prolonged period of growth without a recession. Among the 12 economic expansions since World War II, the current one, which started in mid-year 2009, is the second-longest in duration at 117 months (as of March 2019). Only the economic expansion in the 1990s was longer. At this stage, it would be reasonable for investors to ask: "Is the U.S. overdue for a recession and a bear market?" Click here to keep reading.

Source: Innovest

Confronting the Market Setback

“By the end of the summer I became convinced that the United States equity market was setting itself up for a powerful post mid-term election rally. The economic fundamentals were strong: unemployment was at a 40-year low and real growth was better than 3%; the Federal Reserve was raising rates, but that was only a noble attempt to creep back to normal levels for the later stages of a business cycle. The yield curve was likely to remain positive, inventories were not excessive and leading indicators were still rising.” Click here to continue reading.

Source: Blackstone
 

April 2013 Market Commentary

The Economy

The U.S.

Now five years past the height (or trough, as it were) of the sub-prime crisis, the U.S. economy continues to fight on.  Like a weary boxer enduring countless rounds of punches, the economy battles through bad headlines and government uncertainty.  The latest data revealed that the U.S. economy grew at a 2.5% annual pace in the first quarter of 2013.  While this growth is higher than other recent readings, it was nonetheless below expectations

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February 2013 Market Commentary

The Economy

The U.S.

Addressing the House and Senate in the final week of February, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reported mixed progress on the U.S. economy.  Bernanke noted that “we are gaining some traction” in residential housing, automobiles and other durable goods.  He also defended the Fed’s continued stimulative monetary policy, including near-zero short term interest rates and ongoing quantitative easing.  Due to a persistently weak job market and a lack of wage growth, the U.S. consumer’s health is in question.

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